Astana Club, one of the most esteemed geopolitical forums for Europe and Asia, announces the latest edition of the international rating “TOP-10 Risks for Eurasia in 2021”.
The rating is developed by the Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP), comprising over 40 international experts and 1,200 professional respondents from 75 countries in Eurasia. The COVID-19 pandemic remains the key element to accelerate the risks in 2021 and affects recovery, social stability, digital and climate threats and the escalation of confrontations between key geopolitical players.
A brief rundown of the TOP-10 risks is presented below:
- THE PANDEMIC 2.0 Given the absence of effective international cooperation mechanisms to combat the infection and the constant mutation of the virus, the pandemic threatens to continue throughout 2021, possibly longer.
- RECOVERY UNDER THREAT The pandemic, collapse of economic activity, geopolitical and social instability and the debt crisis of emerging markets are key factors that threaten the shaky recovery of the world economy.
- US-CHINA COLD WAR The US and China have crossed practically all “red lines” during the pandemic; this confrontation will transform into full scale systemic conflict in 2021.
- CRISIS AROUND IRAN Growing tensions around Iran may trigger a large-scale military confrontation, thus dealing a crushing blow to the international energy market.
- DECOUPLING Decoupling of the West and China will not only continue under the new US administration but will gain a dangerous new dynamic in 2021.
- DISSOLUTION OF THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME The erosion of key nuclear treaties and institutions along with outstripping developments in military technologies threaten to initiate a new nuclear arms race.
- EXPLODING SOCIAL PROTESTS Political systems in many countries will come under unprecedented pressure as the economic and social impact of COVID-19 mounts.
- GLOBAL CYBER CRISIS The absence of uniform rules in the digital domain opens the road to massive cyber-attacks, which may become the catalyst for a global-level crisis.
- DIGITAL TOTALITARIANISM Total digitalization, accelerated by the pandemic, offers unprecedented opportunities to control personal data and political censure, creating the risk of a new type of totalitarianism.
- FAILURE OF DECARBONISATION In 2021, the world will be concerned with recovering economic growth, meaning plans to decarbonize and reduce CO2 emissions will be pushed to one side, especially in developing countries.
Rating of TOP-10 risks for Eurasia in 2020 is an analytical project aimed at evaluating major threats for Eurasian macroregion.
The full report is available at: https://eurasiarisks2021.astanaclub.kz/#risks